An investigative look at Amendments 4 and 5 and their potential impact on Missouri’s citizen initiative process and tax system
by Thom Gross, retired journalist, St. Louis, Missouri
August is traditionally a sleepy month, when Missourians seek escape from the heat and schedule little for themselves other than vacations to cool, breezy, often out-of-state locales. But this year, we can’t afford to doze!
In even-numbered years, August also is the time for primary elections in Missouri. Historically, the August ballot is where politicians place initiatives they think will benefit from a low turnout. They count on you being unengaged.
This year’s Dog Days election is no different. The Aug. 4 ballot will contain four yes-or-no choices for voters, including three constitutional amendments. While four measures appear on the Aug. 4 ballot, this discussion focuses on the two constitutional amendments—Nos. 4 and 5.
Wake up–two of the proposed amendments — No. 4 and No. 5 — are noxious, consequential, and deceptive attempts to take away powers that Missouri voters have held for generations.
Amendment 4 attempts to quash the 118-year-old power of citizens to place initiatives on the ballot through a strict petitioning process. The initiatives typically require voter approval of policies that legislators oppose or cannot agree on.
Amendment 5, Gov. Mike Kehoe’s signature tax plan, is a classic bait and switch. It dangles before voters the shiny removal of income taxes. But if voters take the bait, they’ll find that they have swallowed unlimited new sales and use taxes that they’ll never get to vote on. In the “bargain,” they will have lost three popular tax-protection laws that they voted for.
“The common thread between the amendments is luring Missouri citizens to surrender long-held constitutional power and freedom, and giving that power to politicians to use unchecked.”
— Scott Charton, Protect Majority Rule Campaign Missouri
Defeat deceptive Amendment 4 to Preserve Missourians’ petition power.
Amendment 4 was placed on the ballot by the GOP-controlled General Assembly last year. It would gut the longstanding practice of using the citizen-led initiative petition process to bypass reluctant politicians.
Since 1908, Missourians have used initiative petitions 130 times to ensure that voters — not just Big Money — are heard on vital issues. They have succeeded 45 times.
The initiative petition process already is intentionally laborious. To get a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot today involves collecting more than 170,000 signatures of verified registered voters statewide.
Volunteers for the Respect MO Voters initiative (RMV), a citizen-led initiative to protect voters’ ability to pass laws by petition, collected more than twice the required number to put the proposal on the November ballot. The RMV proposal would make it harder for lawmakers to overturn laws approved by voters through the citizen initiative process. It is this measure that the Republican legislative majority is seeking to limit through Amendment 4.
The time limit for signature collection is tough: 18 months if the request is filed and the petition language is approved at the earliest possible date.
Recent achievements through initiative petitions include Medicaid expansion, marijuana legalization, minimum-wage increases, paid sick leave, and the restoration of reproductive health rights.
Arguments in favor of Amendment 4 are deceptive.
The legislators who put Amendment 4 on the ballot say the process of amending our state constitution should be challenging. But their amendment would increase difficulty only for citizen petitioners. The bar would remain lower for legislators, creating a gross inequity of two different criteria for determining majority support.
A crucial element of democracy in Missouri would die under Amendment 4
Amendment 4 requires that ballot initiatives must achieve majorities in all eight of the states’ congressional districts. In effect, one district would have veto power over the entire state. A single district with as few as 7 percent of the state’s voters could defeat a measure supported by over 90 percent.
Ballotpedia has concluded that every Missouri ballot petition for a constitutional amendment passed since 2020 would have failed under Amendment 4’s standard.
Meanwhile, when legislators place constitutional amendments (like Amendment 4) on the ballot, they need win only a simple majority of votes statewide. Of course, this gives an unfair advantage to legislators and the big-moneyed interest group who contribute to them.
To defeat petition-initiated ballot issues, opponents could concentrate on only one (gerrymandered) congressional district, while petitioners would have to win separate majorities in each of the eight.
If Amendment 4 passes in August, the RMV amendment on November’s ballot would face a virtually impossible hurdle to become law.
Preserving the current initiative petition process is a nonpartisan issue
Some Republican state legislators joined Democrats in unsuccessfully opposing placement of Amendment 4 on the ballot. And now that it’s on the ballot, the movement to defeat it includes nonpartisan organizations such as the League of Women Voters of Missouri, Missouri Jobs with Justice, the Missouri Association of Realtors, the Missouri Voter Protection Coalition, and even the conservative Act for Missouri (Act4MO).
Act4MO decried the two sets of rules for gaining approval of ballot issues.
Meanwhile, Amendment 5 — the most consequential measure on this same August ballot — was placed there by the Legislature and faces no district test at all, even though the Missouri Western District Court of Appeals had to rewrite its ballot language before voters could see it,” Act4MO concludes.
Our Missouri Constitution, from its very opening, declares that all political power derives from and resides in the people. Missouri Constitution, Article I, Section 1, states:
In order to assert our rights, acknowledge our duties, and proclaim the principles on which our government is founded, we declare: That all political power is vested in and derived from the people; all government of right originates from the people, is founded upon their will only, and is instituted solely for the good of the whole.
The people know what they want. There should always be a path for them to enact it. The people indicate what they want when they choose whether or not to sign initiative petitions, and later in how they vote on the issue.
Legislators certainly know what their big contributors and party leaders want. They may or may not follow what their constituents want. Today’s Republican supermajority in the Missouri General Assembly is trying to strangle the ability of the majority of voters — whatever their party may be — to change our laws.
That’s a risky move. That’s why some conservatives are crying foul over the crippling of the initiative petition process. They know that tables can turn in the partisan makeup of legislatures, and today’s Republicans could find themselves facing a Democratic majority and newly drawn congressional districts in the future.
Missourians of both political parties, and no party, can see through Amendment 4.
Citizens should never vote to surrender their own power. The passage of Amendment 4 would undermine direct democracy and grant politicians unchecked power to override the will of the majority. Vote NO on Aug. 4!
Amendment 5: For equitable Missouri taxation, don’t fall for the bait-and-switch
Amendment 5 seeks to phase out Missouri’s individual income tax over five years by granting the Missouri Legislature the power to raise sales and use taxes without a statewide vote.
It may sound simple, but the process for getting Amendment 5 on the ballot has been marked by deception.
Courts have repeatedly rewritten ballot summaries that failed to inform voters clearly about the loss of voter control over tax hikes. In its ruling, a state appeals court said the Amendment 5 ballot summary must emphasize that a broader sales tax is the main mechanism that would allow elimination of the personal income tax.
“It is not fair and sufficient to repeatedly suggest to voters that various tax obligations will be reduced and eliminated without informing them, at any point or in any manner, of the expansive authority that will be granted regarding sales and use taxes,” Judge Thomas Chapman wrote.
Recent ads promoting Amendment 5 suggest the income tax phaseout will thwart expansion of data centers by making Big Tech pay more taxes. The ads mislead voters, as the amendment contains no mention of data centers or any specific industry. In fact, Gov. Mike Kehoe, who supports Amendment 5, has actively sought to bring more data centers to the state, including offers of tax exemptions.
The measure undermines three existing tax protections approved by voters and supported by conservatives and libertarians — a fact its supporters tried to hide until courts revised the ballot language to at least reference their removal. The three are:
The 1980 Hancock Amendment. Missouri’s taxpayer “bill of rights” requires voter approval for major tax hikes. Amendment 5 creates a 5-year loophole letting lawmakers raise and expand sales taxes without a public vote.
The 2016 Ban on Taxing Services. Voters blocked new taxes on everyday services — doctor visits, car repairs, daycare, haircuts, and more. Amendment 5 “curtails” this protection so politicians could start taxing those services during that same five-year window — to replace the $8.5 billion lost from eliminating the income tax.
The 2010 Ban of Taxes on Home and Property Sales. Amendment 5 gives lawmakers unchecked authority to bring back these types of property-transaction taxes.
Amendment 5’s language for replacing revenue from income taxes is vague and open-ended
It would give the General Assembly complete discretion over what to tax and how much to tax it, without requiring voter approval. Voters will face higher taxes on everyday goods and services, including barbers, fitness centers, auto repairs, health care, rent, daycare, and home sales.
“Amendment 5’s ‘Everything Tax’ will cost Missourians from cradle to grave — from the services of the midwife to the services of the mortician,” says Missourians for Fair Taxation.
The individual income tax, projected at $8.5 billion this year, accounts for nearly two-thirds of Missouri’s general revenue. Replacing it requires a fundamental restructuring of how the state collects money. Replacing that revenue without expanding sales tax coverage would require raising the sales tax rate from the current 3 percent to 10.7 percent. An increase that high would put many retailers out of business.
It’s more likely that eliminating the income tax would require a broad expansion of the sales tax to goods and services not currently taxed. Even with broader and higher sales taxes, there is no realistic way to make up the $8.5 billion shortfall in income tax revenue without substantial cuts to state services, including support for older adults and schools.
“The proposal would blow a $5 billion hole in the state budget, causing massive cuts to schools, particularly in rural areas. If resulting cuts are equally distributed across the budget, state general revenue funding for local schools would be cut by more than one-third, or $1.4 billion statewide. Depending on the school district, this could result in a nearly 18% cut in TOTAL school revenue, including local funds.”
— The Missouri Budget Project
The amendment includes no “guardrails” to account for population growth, inflation, or economic downturns that dramatically affect the cost and need for state services.
Replacement taxes will punish low-income Missourians and reward the richest
Up to 80 percent of Missourians could pay more in total taxes under the amendment because of expanded sales tax burdens, analyses show.
Sales tax is regressive — it hits the poor and middle class harder. Seniors and retirees on fixed incomes gain nothing in income tax cuts but will pay more on everything they purchase.
Amendment 5 is a significant, largely irreversible tax restructuring that clearly benefits the wealthy, is a gamble for the middle class, and is almost certainly a net negative for lower-income Missourians and retirees.
For the Poor: Someone earning $25,000 currently pays minimal income tax. Under a broader sales tax regime, everyday necessities like utilities, haircuts, and basic services become more expensive, with no offsetting income tax savings. Their total tax burden rises. A tax on rental payments would shift the tax burden from the wealthiest to the poorest, from investors to workers.
For the Middle Class: If the General Assembly expands sales taxes to services to cover the revenue gap, a family paying $3,000/year in income tax could face new taxes on car repairs, healthcare co-pays, home services, internet, and more — potentially exceeding what they saved. Net result: paying more, not less.
For the State Budget: Taxing the products and services Missourians use every day will make it more difficult for families to get ahead. Economic activity could slow, reducing the new revenue the amendment depends on to replace income taxes, creating a vicious cycle.
Significantly, the amendment includes no “guardrails” to account for population growth, inflation, or economic downturns that dramatically affect the cost and need for state services. The impacts would depend on what the General Assembly decides to tax and by how much — and Amendment 5 removes the public’s ability to vote on those decisions.
Don’t fall for the illusion of removing the income tax. The consequences will cost more for 80 percent of us and leave us powerless to vote out new taxes.
Make plans to vote on Aug. 4. Make sure you’re registered and know your polling place. Study up on the issues, and vote NO on Amendments 4 and 5!